On April 7, Mexico's leading presidential candidates, Claudia Sheinbaum of MORENA and Bertha Xóchitl Gálvez of the electoral coalition Strength and Heart for Mexico, clashed in the first of three televised debates. The debate highlighted the candidates' contrasting visions and set the stage for the upcoming election on June 2.
Powerful performance by Sheinbaum
Claudia Sheinbaum, a scientist with a Ph.D. in energy engineering and a close ally of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), presented a clear and calm presence in the debate. Despite facing trauma related to his tenure as head of the Mexico City government, especially the subway collapse and the city's water crisis, Sheinbaum has managed to stay calm and focused. into its political agenda.
Sheinbaum's experience as Secretary of the Environment in Mexico City and her direct involvement in the AMLO administration lent credibility to her promise to continue participating in the country's social programs. current government. Her scientific background and administrative experience are evident as she presents her policies and responds to attacks.
Gálvez's struggle
Bertha Xóchitl Gálvez, representing the Strength and Heart for Mexico coalition, which includes the PRI, PAN and PRD, struggled to articulate her political and social proposals effectively. Her sharp and sometimes jarring attacks on Sheinbaum did not resonate well with the audience. Gálvez herself admitted that she did not perform well, claiming that she was not honest with herself.
Gálvez missed key opportunities to challenge Sheinbaum on important issues such as the subway debacle and the water crisis in Mexico City. As a result, her performance did not do any favors in the polls, where she remained significantly behind Sheinbaum, with polls showing her at 34-36%. with 58-60% of Sheinbaum.
Impact of third candidate
The third candidate in the debate, Jorge Álvarez Mãnez of the Civic Movement Party, which advocates a “social market economy,” won some points, polling at 5-6% after the vote. debate. Although his presence was less visible than that of the two leading candidates, Álvarez Mãnez's participation added another dimension to the political discourse.
AMLO's social programs and legacy
AMLO's administration, characterized by modest social programs such as cash transfers, wage increases and pensions, was popular with Mexicans. These programs reached millions of people and were the basis of his government's appeal. Despite his controversial decisions, such as favoring Mexico's national oil company Pemex over U.S. oil companies and occasionally supporting Venezuela and Nicaragua, AMLO has maintained his support. significant household.
Gálvez, with her liberal and high-tech leanings, insisted she would maintain AMLO's social programs, but Sheinbaum, as AMLO's chosen successor, more credibly claimed she would continue follow them. This credibility gap further strengthens Sheinbaum's position as a leader.
Relations and economic policy of the United States
AMLO's relationship with the United States is complex, balanced between cooperation and assertiveness. While some on the US right have criticized him, more pragmatic elements have appreciated his efforts to limit mass migration and promote an environment conducive to US investment. His administration's “Republican austerity” approach, focusing spending on specific projects like the Maya Train and Pemex's Dos Bocas refinery, aligns with U.S. interests.
Washington considers Mexico an important partner in economic competition with China, typically with Elon Musk's Tesla investing billions of dollars in a factory near Monterrey. AMLO's policies did not disrupt the interests of the Mexican oligarchs, maintaining favorable conditions for both domestic and foreign investors.
Challenges ahead for Sheinbaum
Sheinbaum, committed to continuing AMLO's policies, faces significant challenges. She has sworn not to raise or create new taxes on the wealthy and corporate profits, which would limit the government's ability to expand social programs. A coalition of NGOs led by Oxfam Mexico estimates that maintaining current levels of access to health care, education and other services requires equivalent increases in spending. 5.5 percent of GDP.
The real challenge lies in balancing social welfare with economic stability in a volatile global economy. Sheinbaum's ability to tackle these complex issues will be critical in determining Mexico's future trajectory under her potential leadership.
Conclusion
The first presidential debate highlighted the stark differences between Claudia Sheinbaum and Bertha Xóchitl Gálvez. Sheinbaum’s solid track record and credibility as AMLO’s successor have helped her lead in the polls. As the election approaches, the remaining debates will provide more opportunities for the candidates to make their case to voters, but Sheinbaum’s lead looks formidable. The outcome will significantly shape Mexico’s political and economic landscape for years to come.
